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Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill-Town wins!
http://www.psypokes.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020		 Page 3 of 8
Author:  mudkip mistriss [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Wow I was the first to die, at least my soul goes to the heavens unlike you guys.
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Quiet, dead person; go back to the crypt.

...So. The wolves killed a complete and utter newbie. And I'm not dead yet.

I don't know how much stock you'll put into what I am about to say, but here goes:

I'm not a wolf.
If I were, I would have not wasted my first night kill on a newbie. I would have first gone for someone I would perceive as a threat.
...Take that how you will, but I assure you I'm innocent.
Author:  twistedturtwig [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
I'd have to agree, DNA's a lot smarter than that. Although, he could have done it intentionally, to throw suspicion off of him. I guess time will have to tell.

As for my vouch, do you really think that I'd be the werewolf twice in a row? I mean, come on seriously, the chances of that are pretty slim. Like, 4% chance slim (yes, I did the math). And, like DNA, I wouldn't take out a new person, I'd take out a strong player first.

Also, a tip for the special village roles. Do NOT tell everyone who you are. The only incidence in which you should is if the Seer finds a werewolf. Then, they can reveal themself to the village, and the Priest can guard them for the next night if it's been proven that they are the real Seer. Also, they should only do this a bit into the game, not on the first few rounds, as they should gather as much intel as possible before risking themselves. They'll survive at least for the next day, since unfortunately, the Priest can only bodyguard someone besides who they last bodyguarded. If this does happen, then they can tell the village all of the good people they detected before they're killed, so the remaining wolves can be narrowed down from those left. It'd be even better if the Seer PM's those who he finds innocent, so that the villagers can all eventually link up. If we survive until this happens, we've got a very strong chance of the village winning the game for once.
Author:  ChillBill [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
I think I mentioned in the first post that game discussion is only allowed in the thread. As such, no PMs. The only ones who can communicate via any method are the wolves.
Author:  twistedturtwig [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
It does? Darn, that's too bad. Oh well, it'll have to be that way, I suppose. But a lot of the stuff I said can still be done, so hopefully it will all work out for the best.
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
[quote=twistedturtwig]I'd have to agree, DNA's a lot smarter than that. Although, he could have done it intentionally, to throw suspicion off of him. I guess time will have to tell.[/quote]
As much as I love randomness, I cannot do that in Werewolf. I just can't. I make one false move and I'm dead. I would always take the good play over the random one. No, I would have most certainly not killed mudkip mistress night 1. I would not have even given her a second thought.

Quote:
As for my vouch, do you really think that I'd be the werewolf twice in a row? I mean, come on seriously, the chances of that are pretty slim. Like, 4% chance slim (yes, I did the math).

Gambler's fallacy. That's false logic; you can't argue that successfully.

Quote:
Also, a tip for the special village roles. Do NOT tell everyone who you are. The only incidence in which you should is if the Seer finds a werewolf. Then, they can reveal themself to the village, and the Priest can guard them for the next night if it's been proven that they are the real Seer.

I agree. Seer revealing is one of the riskiest plays you can do. Unless you are sure you will be protected, or if it instantly ends the game, revealing yourself as Seer is like signing your own death warrant. Take heed.
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Hmmm... Lets see...


DNA WASN'T KILLED BECAUSE THE PRIEST PROTECTED THEM!!!

The only problem, we don't know if DNA is a wolf. Seer, whoever you are, Seer DNA next time.
I am not going to vote yet. I am thinking Joe as he is the only one of us alive so haven't played yet. Literally the only one. He doesn't know any of us. He has no experience. I am thinking he might have done it.

I don't have any suspicions yet. (I take long, but its worth it.... Without the Wailord framing.)
Author:  Dare234 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
DNA wrote:
twistedturtwig wrote:
Also, a tip for the special village roles. Do NOT tell everyone who you are. The only incidence in which you should is if the Seer finds a werewolf. Then, they can reveal themself to the village, and the Priest can guard them for the next night if it's been proven that they are the real Seer.

I agree. Seer revealing is one of the riskiest plays you can do. Unless you are sure you will be protected, or if it instantly ends the game, revealing yourself as Seer is like signing your own death warrant. Take heed.

Not to mention the Priest might die before the Seer decides to reveal themselves.

Also I have to side with DNA on this one; I don't think he's a werewolf. As for who the werewolf's are, I'm thinking that they are someone new since they didn't target any of the vets. No specific hunches as of yet though.
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
James86134 wrote:
Hmmm... Lets see...


DNA WASN'T KILLED BECAUSE THE PRIEST PROTECTED THEM!!!


Wrong.

If the priest protected me, that means there would be no one killed tonight. I was clearly not even picked as the kill target.

...wow. This has been almost a record for me proving my innocence.
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Must have read the rules wrong. I thought if they tried to kill the protected play, they chose again.

Hmmm... Out pure randomness and as it is Round 1...

VOTE: JOE THE CONQUERER

YAY FOR RANDOMNESS!!!

Votes:

1 - Joe The Conquerer


Also, when you guys start voting for me (it will come soon) remember, I'm Yoshi/Kirby/Sneasel..?

No, I'm Yoshi/Sneasel/Kirby
Author:  twistedturtwig [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
DNA wrote:
twistedturtwig wrote:
As for my vouch, do you really think that I'd be the werewolf twice in a row? I mean, come on seriously, the chances of that are pretty slim. Like, 4% chance slim (yes, I did the math).

Gambler's fallacy. That's false logic; you can't argue that successfully.

Actually, that's where you're wrong. I had a 20% chance to be picked as a werewolf this round, but I had a 4% chance to be picked as a werewolf two rounds in a row. Let's take a coin flip for example. The chances of it landing on heads is 1/2. Now, the next time it is flipped, there is still a 1/2 chance for it to be heads. However, the chances that it landed on heads both times in a row are 1/4. There will always be a 1/2 chance of it to land heads up, but the chance that it landed heads up continuously will get slimmer and slimmer. For werewolf, since there are 15 players, and 3 out of those 15 are wolves, each person has a 20% chance of getting the role of a werewolf. This applies to me as well. However, the chances of me being picked as a werewolf twice in a row, since I was one last game, is only 4%. I have the same chance as everyone else this game to be one, but I only have a 4% chance to have been one twice in a row.
Author:  Haunted Water [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Good math, except you forgot that each WW is technically considered as an independent value, sooo...
You have a math fail on your hands.
So, with his horrible lol4% math fail, and the fact that he's already talking about roles extensively, twit most likely has a role. Not saying he's a wolf, not saying he isn't, nor am I saying he had a role to begin with. Just my observations, that's all.



And I swear, if the wolves use any of my observations, I'll eat them, thus feasting upon their very souls.
Author:  twistedturtwig [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Haunted Water wrote:
Good math, except you forgot that each WW is technically considered as an independent value, sooo...
You have a math fail on your hands.

What math fail? I see none, unless you're counting in the two village roles. 3 out of 15 is equivalent to 1 out if 5, which is equivalent to 20%. And then 1/5 of 20% is 4%. Seems right to me.
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Are we allowed to change our votes.

You guys need to stop talking about something so insignificant. Math... PFTTT... Who needs it?

EDIT: Made sure my vote was counted by doing all capitals.

Remember guys: VOTE: DNA....
Author:  SanguinaryScientist [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Whoa so much stuff went down
My thoughts after reading everything
Newbie got lynched okay smooth move wolves so that either means all the wolves are newbs or the alpha is abnormaly stubborn and dont listen to the minor wolves.
Either that or the wolves killed a newb to make people think EXACTLY what I said
Not joining a bandwagon here just to join a band wagon
But im going with DNA he's a pro enough player, one of the best, and if he killed one of the other good players he might have been targeted because he knows what he's doing

This game is too confusing man!
VOTE GOES TO DNA
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Sanguinary,

The only living newb here is Joe. He has never played. The rest of us have.



Also:

Hey, Ho, its da Votes over here! wrote:

1 - Joey Da Conquerer

1 - DNA, HEY



EDIT: probably over thinking this but, maybe the wolves didn't attack DNA so they could next round.

The priest, if he has experience, protected DNA. The wolves would have guess DNA is being protected so they went for someone else. Knowing DNA can't be saved two times in a row?...

EDIT 2: Chill, why do the days go for so long? Its one Day and one Night every 10 days. It will take at least 2 months to finish the game.
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Quote:
I have the same chance as everyone else this game to be one,

EXACTLY

That's what gambler's fallacy is. It doesn't matter if you were a wolf in a previous game or not. That has zero weight on you being one this game.

James, no offense, but you're going to get modkilled pretty soon.

Sanguinary, though voting for me normally would be a good idea, this time it's not. Look at who was killed. A nobody. I do not kill nobodies, especially not early in the game.
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
DNA wrote:
Quote:
I have the same chance as everyone else this game to be one,

EXACTLY

That's what gambler's fallacy is. It doesn't matter if you were a wolf in a previous game or not. That has zero weight on you being one this game.

James, no offense, but you're going to get modkilled pretty soon.

Sanguinary, though voting for me normally would be a good idea, this time it's not. Look at who was killed. A nobody. I do not kill nobodies, especially not early in the game.


I'm sincerly asking...

Anyway, I do have to agree, DNA does seem safe. But, that's what I though of Twisty last game... Then he screwed us all over. I can tell you what... if you survive the next few rounds, suspicions on you will be raised.

EDIT: the wolves probably killed Mudkip Mistress to confuse us all...
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Maybe.
Or maybe the wolves genuinely don't know how to play.

I'm rather confident in my innocence right now - something I haven't ever been in any WW game. I don't really go after the issue, but I sidestep it. I'm proclaiming my townishness and proclaiming it loud - which is a first for me. I have never done this before.

This may ultimately lead to my downfall, but I don't care.
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Freaking dammit James, that's the FOURTH time you've edited your post. It's annoying.
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
As I said before:

SEER: Check DNA, to be sure.

PRIEST: PROTECT URSELF.


What am I supposed to do? Double post and break the rules? I'd rather not be hunted down by Frost.
Author:  DNA [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
You could wait for someone else to post.
...which I admittedly could and should have done there.
Still, that doesn't excuse you.

Now...I think we should get back to the topic at hand, right? Starting with...first of all, why are you giving our seer and priest orders?
Author:  James86134 [ Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
This will be the post to end the bickering as, I'm sure it will be annoying to read:

I post that because I think its the best thing to do...

And I'm pretty sure I don't want to be posting every second post, so I edit.


There is a lot you can learn from Chillbill's Pokébeach Account Conversations....

Between DNA and Chill. And Haunted and Chill.

I'm not saying what I really want to say right now, so I will say something else. Plus another thing.

One: I read the whole conversation between both. THE WHOLE CONVERSATION

DNA is safe. He was talking with the host on Pokébeach. He declared he though he would be eaten. He was not. Why would a wolf be undecided about being safe.

Well, then mod kill me if you want. Sue me. Call me a stalker. I no longer care about this game any where near as much.

Also, guys, I cou.d have been the wol twice last game. Nice of you to pull away my chance at being a wolf because I'm 'stupid'. If you have a problem with me, at least say it too my face instead of talking behind my back on a completely different website.

Haunted Water wrote:
DNA, I legitimately got the RNG. Admittedly, five times, but the first gave me Chill, Dare, and James. The former two I'm fine with, but I'm not putting up with James' bs as a wolf. Second RNG gave me Drago, and two newbies. So I RNG'd a third time, and got Drago, Sanguinary, and James. James is stupid, so RNG again. I got you, Shiny Hunter, and GhostPony. I knew you'd go off alone, thus leaving the team with two *nearly* deadweights. So, it spit out CB's number, Twist's number, and E-Master's number.
I swear if you tell them this, I will embarass yo faic!
Author:  twistedturtwig [ Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
James, I hate to say it, but that's basically cheating. You shouldn't be checking out other people's private conversations to try and determine whether someone is safe or not. I have a PokeBeach account, and even I'm not going on there just so I don't accidentally see anything. It's unfair, and to be honest, it ruins the game.

...ok, aside from all the rule-breaking, I'm leaning towards DNA's innocence. He seems to check out. But we shouldn't give the Seer or Priest direct orders, or else it will be child's play for the wolves to simply kill someone else, or kill the person being inspected.
Author:  James86134 [ Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Werewolf XX: The Ultimate Chill- Day 1 ends April 29th
Not exactly private considering I can see it...
I now have a Pokébeach account, tried to find some of you... Found the conversation against me. Was I supposed to not read something that went against me?
Not using that Pokébeach account anymore.

It is also cheating to post about the game away from the thread. I wouldn't have found this out if a rule had already been broken.
Haunted, if you want to actually talk to me, point out my attitude problems, PM me. Until then, well... I'm not saying anything else.
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